My opinion on the matter concerns games. I believe that Apple has sampled the mobile phone Kool-Aid® and wants to control the marketplace of iPhone games.
Putting Flash on iPhone potentially kills off the market for games sold through the iTunes
Music Store. Flash-based games are all over the ‘net, and unless the iPhone SDK offers something really promising Flash games would be way more compelling.
My bet is that Flash will eventually make its way to iPhone, but not for at least a year after the SDK is out there. Putting the SDK out first gives developers “One True Way” for doing iPhone development; Flash would be too competitive and would flood the marketplace with applications in way Apple couldn’t control them.